Trio sees renewables market split as policy changes squeeze U.S. buyers

By AI, Created 11:07 AM UTC, May 20, 2026, /AGP/ – Trio’s first-half 2026 renewables report says policy shifts, tax credit changes and Scope 2 guidance uncertainty are reshaping corporate clean power procurement in the U.S. and Europe. The firm says buyers face a narrowing window to lock in contracts before markets become more constrained later this decade.

Why it matters: - Corporate buyers are facing more complex and regionally divergent renewables markets in 2026. - Policy changes in the U.S. are raising project risk, cost and execution pressure. - Europe is seeing weaker pricing in some markets, but that is creating both opportunities and downside risks for buyers. - Trio says companies that wait may find clean energy harder and more expensive to secure as rules tighten.

What happened: - Trio released its Global Renewables Market Report for the first half of 2026 on April 30, 2026. - The report says the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, released last summer, continues to affect the U.S. and global energy landscape. - The report focuses on policy changes, federal tax credit eligibility, and possible revisions to the GHG Scope 2 protocol. - Trio says the report is intended to help corporate buyers decide next steps in increasingly complicated markets.

The details: - U.S. renewable developers are facing higher risk because tax credit requirements and construction deadlines are getting tighter. - Those deadlines are pushing developers to finish projects sooner. - Supply chain problems and permitting delays are also slowing U.S.-based projects. - U.S. REC prices have stayed relatively favorable for corporate buyers in the near term. - Voluntary REC markets remain well supplied, which is keeping prices low. - Longer-term demand drivers are building, including clean fuel tax credit requirements and possible updates to Scope 2 accounting guidance. - U.S. PPA pricing has been stable in select regions. - Interconnection congestion and concentrated corporate demand are still supporting a higher-cost environment over the medium term. - Proposed changes to the GHG Protocol’s Scope 2 guidance are already influencing procurement strategy. - Expanding state clean energy initiatives are also shaping buyer decisions before final rules are issued. - Trio says the window for decision-making is narrowing between 2026 and 2030. - Buyers that act now and stay flexible on structure and technology are likely to be better positioned later in the decade. - Community solar is gaining traction in the U.S. - State-level support is helping make community solar projects more viable. - Demand for cost savings and flexibility is also supporting the segment. - Mature community solar markets are producing larger project sizes, better billing structures and easier participation. - New players are entering the sector in the Midwest, including an Illinois-based project tied to a recent Transform: Auto announcement from Trio and partners. - Europe is experiencing declining pricing, according to the report. - A strong pipeline of solar and wind projects is expected to come online in 2027. - Oversupply is leading to price cannibalization, with too much generation concentrated in certain hours. - That oversupply and falling wholesale power prices are pushing PPA pricing lower. - Finland remains attractive because strong onshore wind supply is supporting competitive PPA pricing. - Nordic buyers still need to watch exposure to negative power prices, which are becoming more frequent and deeper.

Between the lines: - The report suggests the U.S. and Europe are moving in different directions on pricing and procurement risk. - In the U.S., policy uncertainty is making speed and flexibility more valuable. - In Europe, supply abundance is lowering prices, but oversupply can also create volatility and weaker project economics. - The common theme is that buyers need more sophisticated procurement strategies, not just cheaper power. - Trio’s framing implies that waiting for more certainty may reduce options rather than improve them.

What’s next: - Buyers are likely to keep adjusting procurement plans as federal guidance, state policy and market rules evolve. - U.S. companies may move faster to lock in contracts under current rules. - European buyers may focus more on downside protection in markets exposed to negative power prices. - Trio says more detail is available in the full report at the report.